Ice Caps Melting....

[Dmac]

Source: Ninemsn. Link at bottom of Article.

Ice rage: The big melt

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

New evidence reveals the ice caps are melting faster than previously thought. Only urgent action can save our coastal cities, and stop global climate from spiralling out of control. Tim Flannery reports.

Ice shapes Earth's climate, and as it melts, almost every aspect of our climate will be affected. By the middle of this year, evidence was emerging that the big melt is already under way, and that Earth may have passed a crucial climatic tipping point. The key findings concern the Arctic ice cap, which may have entered its death spiral. In as little as 15 years it could be no more in summer. What does this mean for Earth's climate, and for us?

James Lovelock, a veteran of climate science and a strong advocate of nuclear power, has predicted that most of us will die as a result of this unfolding climate catastrophe. This may seem incredible and barely comprehensible, but you would be mad to dismiss the opinions of such a venerable expert without first trying to understand what's happening. The key question is whether we still have time to reduce the pollution that is causing the problem. But before trying to answer that, we need to examine evidence suggesting that the great meltdown has indeed begun, and what this would mean for life on Earth.

Since the 1970s the Arctic ice cap has been melting at the rate of 8% a decade, so that by 2004 it had lost around one-quarter of its area, and much of its thickness. This alarming trend prompted scientists to warn that it may disappear by summer 2100. During the summer of 2005, however, the melt rate accelerated sharply, shrinking the ice cap by an astounding 300,000sq km. Many researchers hoped that this was the result of a year of freakish weather. But as figures for the summer melt of 2006 come in, it is clear that the losses will rival those of 2005. This means that the rate of summer ice loss is currently four times greater than it was just a few years ago.

These prodigious losses appear to be occurring because the open ocean, which is exposed to sunlight as the ice melts, is now trapping so much heat that a tipping point has passed, after which the ice loss can only accelerate. If this is indeed the case, it indicates that the Arctic ice cap has entered a death spiral that will see it melt away entirely in summer within the next five to 15 years.

The news for winter ice is worse. Before 2004, it was melting at a far slower rate than the summer ice. Then its rate of loss accelerated by 10 to 15 times, and it has not slowed. This indicates that the Arctic Ocean has passed an important thermal point and is retaining the warmth it gains from the 24-hour summer sun. Because the plankton at the base of the Arctic food chain depend upon summer melting of winter ice, a collapse of the Arctic food chain could be expected in the near future.

All of this is deeply shocking, and we can only hope against reason that the ice will somehow re-establish itself. If it does not, the great Arctic ice-cap, which for 3 million years or more has acted as Earth's airconditioner by radiating sunlight into space, will be no more. This will affect the planet's heat balance and, by altering the heat gradient between the North Pole and the equator (which determines weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere), it will alter wind, rainfall, heat and extreme weather across half of the globe.

But there is another fact that should grab our attention. As the Arctic Ocean turns into a heat-capturing machine, the great Greenland ice-cap - the last relic of the northern ice age and 10% of the global ice mass - will be warmed as never before.

There are disturbing signs that Greenland is already feeling the heat. New estimates of the rate of melt there, obtained in 2006 from two stationary satellites which measure it with great accuracy, indicate that Greenland's ice is vanishing at the rate of 235 cubic kilometres a year, give or take 80 cubic kilometres. Much of the water is cascading through holes in the ice and lubricating its interface with the underlying rock. As a result, masses of ice the size of Manhattan are now lurching forward by as much as 10m at a time, a fact supported by the increasing number of gargantuan - Richter-scale magnitude 5.0 and above - glacial earthquakes being recorded. Between 1993 and 2002, between six and 15 such quakes occurred. By 2004, this had leapt to 24, and in 2005, there were 32. Is this the prelude to a collapse? No one can say, but the data is consistent with massively accelerated glacial movement or increased meltdown.

Were the Greenland ice sheet to collapse entirely, oceans worldwide would rise by around 6m, and that could happen surprisingly quickly. Some sense of the outcome were either the Greenland or the West Antarctic ice sheet (which is of roughly equal size and increasingly unstable) to melt, comes from the 2002 collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula. That ice field was once 200m thick and 3250sq km in area. It had been stable for 12,000 years, yet it shattered to fragments over just a few weeks.

This evidence for the imminent collapse of ice sheets in both Greenland and West Antarctica has prompted Dr James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute and arguably the world's foremost authority on climate change, to warn that we have only a decade or so to avert a rise in the oceans of 25m. Picture an eight-storey building by the beach, then imagine waves washing over its roof. That's what a 25m rise looks like.

Monitoring reveals that the global burden of carbon dioxide (CO 2) pollution continues to accelerate. In the 1950s, the gas was building up at an average rate of around one part per million (ppm) per year; by the late 20th century by 1.8ppm; and for the past few years at an average rate of 2-2.5ppm. This indicates that we are losing the battle for climatic stability, and that drastic action is now required to control the trend.

Travelling the world talking about climate change, I have noticed a remarkable awakening of public awareness. But this is not yet translating into political action that might save us. Climate-change dinosaurs - principally President George W. Bush, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and John Howard - continue to lead us towards disaster. But even among those who are trying to avert the catastrophe, action has not been resolute enough. I believe that there is still reason for hope, however, because many people in business, as well as private citizens, are doing their utmost to reduce pollution levels.

Some of the most significant political shifts concern the many European nations that have announced targets for CO 2 reduction that exceed their Kyoto obligations. California, led by Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, has set a target of an 80% reduction below 1990 levels in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This is among the most ambitious in the world, and it is especially heartening to see a conservative politician adopt it. Even China has moved swiftly, announcing a 20% target for renewable energy by 2020, along with some of the most stringent vehicle efficiency standards in the world.

Technology is helping. The use of ethanol derived from crops such as corn and wheat is now widespread as an additive to petrol, and it seems likely that crop and forestry waste will soon be used to make so-called cellulosic ethanol on a large scale. Even smarter fuel technologies are on the horizon, none more promising than those that mimic the natural production of oil. These techniques subject crop waste to low heat and pressure in an oxygen-deprived environment, the result being a crude oil substitute and charcoal. This delivers a quadruple dividend to farmers: they can grow a crop, use its waste for fuel, draw CO 2 from the air and store it in the soil as charcoal, and in turn the charcoal will help enrich their soil by enhancing moisture retention and stimulating microbial growth. It is critical that charcoal remains stable in the soil, permitting long-term storage of CO 2 drawn from the atmosphere.

These technologies allow us to think about reducing the existing burden of CO 2 pollution. This is important, because the CO 2 already in the atmosphere will warm the planet for a century or more. The job ahead, however, is substantial. Reducing CO 2 in the atmosphere by just one part per million means sequestering 14 gigatonnes of carbon. The entire forests of Amazonia contain only 200 gigatonnes or so of carbon, so this would require a massive effort.

Some in the fossil fuel industry continue to invest in the catastrophically polluting exploitation of tar sands, oil shales and coal. This is sending us rapidly backwards. Making oil from Canada's tar sands, for example, releases three times as much CO 2 as does conventional oil extraction, while making oil from oil shales and coal is even more polluting. This illustrates the folly of the course set by the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (AP6) that new technologies in the absence of a price signal for carbon can save the day. Only by getting the CO 2 polluters to pay will we discourage industry from following disastrous paths such as oil shale exploitation. This means using the power of the marketplace by instituting a carbon tax or aggressive carbon-trading scheme.

The Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) and the European carbon-trading scheme are already working to reduce pollution. Richard Sandor, who established the CCX, told me recently that the far right hates him for demonstrating that pollution can be reduced at so small a cost, which reveals a little of the polluters' twisted thinking. It's dispiriting to see self-professed free marketers like Howard and Bush refusing to countenance carbon-trading.

It's difficult to predict the outcome of our race to stabilise Earth's climate. What is clear, though, is that some of us are asleep at the starting blocks. Given the newly revealed magnitude and urgency of the challenge, this is unacceptable. Tim Flannery is a world-renowned environmental scientist and author. His most recent book is We Are the Weather Makers.

Scary Stuff huh? But remember, YOU can help sort this Problem.

Original Website: Click Here.

Edited October 5, 2006 by Dmac_91

[JOYA]

I like warm weather alot but this is really bad. I bet we will be on the brink of diasaster before any real progress is made. It is just so much more profitable to put the environment as our 2nd priority.

[Dmac]

If anyone here Drives to work or whatever, Try walking because this is serious. Spread the word about this, Post it on other Forums, People need to know.

[GTAFlashfire]

If this is true then we're really screwed. I can't imagine living without cold weather! An ocean rise of 25m will cover most of the area I grow up in!

[Spaz The Great]

Ha. Florida is f***ed. YAY FLORIDA!

We're all screwed. Hasn't everyone known this from the start?

[Nate10]

Ya.Spaz is right.People have known this for years.It's funny though really because nobody is really trying to "help out" but people are actually scared shitless about this.It seems the world is just a bit to lazy to "help out" or whatever you'd call it.Even i'm scared as hell but i'm doing nothing.And if this will actually happen;man are we gonna be sorry.

edit:But in the end like something will save it from us just like a bunch of other stuff has before but who knows this I guess.

Edited October 5, 2006 by $GTA_4_LIFE_$

[Sherman]

Makes me glad I live in the mountain regions. Where we can grow our own food and have a well.

I didn't really read it, but if the caps melted wouldn't that just make it rain more and we'd have colder weather?

[Dmac]

If this happens just make sure you dont live in a Area were it Floods.

Edited October 6, 2006 by Dmac_91

[chris82]

If anyone here Drives to work or whatever, Try walking because this is serious. Spread the word about this, Post it on other Forums, People need to know.

No thanks. It's a lost cause. Imagine telling every cab driver in New York City not to drive. It can't really be done.

As Spaz said, everyone on Earth is completely and totally fucked.

[C.O.D]

Do you think Indonesia can get asswiped too?

[Dmac]

As Spaz said, everyone on Earth is completely and totally f***ed.

Not if we act now.

[Bear]

There are milions of people like my dad: belives in money, power, money, corporation and Oh did I mention money. You cant change these people but that doesnt mean the rest who care should give up. Im part of a recycling thing at college its small but atleast Im doing somnething. The smallest things make a big difference.

[Someone]

Now, calm down people, we all knew that this world is going to hell, right? Here are the main problems:

1. yellowstone is going to erupt and cause a new ice age, killing 95% of living things on the planet

2. an asteroid from space is likely to hit us, could be tomorrow, and is again causing an ice age

3. the planet is overcrowded

4. the wars and the oil are causing prices to grow

5. and of course, the global warming

I was scared cuz of the word 'urgent'. a single person isnt going to make much of a difference, but a lot of people could do it. but again, most people wont cuz it aint their future, they're rich or old and whatever happens, they can buy an air conditioner or wont be alive then. ''we inherited our land from our ancestors, but also borrowed it from our descendants'' or something like that.

U know, the nature has its way of taking care for itself. if we melt the ice caps (or chop down the forest), it will most of us to die so it could refreeze (or grow again). It will all start from beginning, if all is destroyed. just like with birds and bugs: more bugs=more birds=less bugs=less birds=more bugs and so on. a scale.

[Dmac]

There are milions of people like my dad: belives in money, power, money, corporation and Oh did I mention money. You cant change these people but that doesnt mean the rest who care should give up. Im part of a recycling thing at college its small but atleast Im doing somnething. The smallest things make a big difference.

The Smallest things can make a Differnce. Its just a matter of making people aware.

[C.O.D]

Now is the time where people are starting to think about their mistakes done yesterday and the days before, but actually now is the time to think for a solution, and apologize to everybody in the world.

[Dmac]

Now is the time where people are starting to think about their mistakes done yesterday and the days before, but actually now is the time to think for a solution, and apologize to everybody in the world.

That it true. People are finally relizing what they have done, And some are helping out stop it.

[Nate10]

Dmac is doing a good thing in all but it really isn't even gonna help .0000001% of the planet.Chris82 and Spaz The Great are right.We are all screwed.Plain and Simple.

edit:YAY EARTH!

Edited October 7, 2006 by $GTA_4_LIFE_$

[C.O.D]

Aaaand, for anybody who thinks this is a hoax, then it means you're making a mistake. I just saw the commercials about "how Florida is going to be in 15 years" on Discovery Channel. As you all know, Discovery Channel is good "food".

[Bear]

You cant have the attitude that we are screwed so there isnt any point in trying because thats not the case. But you cant think that you can change the world by telling people the world is gonna end and expect people to listen. You cant make people want to help out they have to want to and actually care.

[Meltdown]

That's what they said 50 years ago? Or so I've been told.

[Nate10]

I don't know if it's been longer or shorter than 50 years but we(earth) have known it for quite some time.

[Dark Lord]

Dats Scary.

But it is already in effect.

Where i live is a Dry Region and for last two years we have having floods and the Tropican and Savana regions of my country (India) are reciving merge supply of rain.This is due the F**King Global Warming due to heavy industrialization mainly in India China and US Russia.

They say Vinice will sink

[Someone]

not just venice, but all the coastal cities. I've read that about 1 billion people live not even 1 meter above the sea level.

[Dmac]

I live in Melbourne, If that goes under i will move inland.

[C.O.D]

Talk about last minute preparations...